All of the experts had the American League Central figured out going into the 2008 season. The exact finish was up for debate, but almost everyone agreed that it was to be a battle between the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers for Midwestern supremacy. To run no risk of understatement, things didn’t quite go according to that plan.
The Tigers limped out of the gate and dropped their first seven games as their vaunted “1,000-run offense” couldn’t heat up in the cold April weather. By the time the Bengals’ offense came around, the Tigers’ pitching was imploding. Detroit, expected to win at least 90 games, hit a high-water mark of three games over .500 on July 30. Treading water during the middle of the season, Detroit resided in third place continuously from June 17 through August 25. On September 24, the team with a payroll in excess of $130 million fell behind the Royals and finished in last place in the AL Central.
The Indians featured Cliff Lee, the 2008 American League Cy Young Award winner, but a rash of injuries hurt the team. The result was a midseason fire sale, with Casey Blake and CC Sabathia getting shipped to the National League. The Indians needed a strong finish (34-23 in August and September), but they at least managed to salvage something and finished firmly in third place.
The Twins and White Sox, who were written off as also-rans by many before the season, were buoyed by strong starting pitching and efficient offenses. From June 21 forward, the two teams alternated in the divisional lead with the second-place team never falling more than three games behind. When the regular season ended on September 28, the White Sox found themselves one win behind the Twins. This forced Chicago to play a make-up game with the Tigers to replace a game rained out earlier in the season.
The following day, the White Sox beat the Tigers to match the Twins 88-74 record and force a one-game playoff. A Jim Thome homer leading off the seventh inning accounted for all the scoring in the playoff against the Twins, as Chicago lefty John Danks outdueled Nick Blackburn and sent the White Sox to the postseason.
As the 2009 season dawns, the American League Central situation gives rise to many questions. Can the White Sox and Twins build on their 2008 success? Can the Indians stay healthy and productive? Will the Tigers’ pitching and defense rebound? Can the downtrodden Royals translate those early draft picks into more notches in the win column?
The White Sox made one of the first big moves of the offseason when they shipped slugging first baseman-outfielder Nick Swisher to the Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez after Swisher had disappointed with a .219 average and 92 OPS+ in his one season in Chicago. Also gone from the Pale Hose’s 2008 squad is the left side of the infield, with Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera leaving via free agency. The Sox also shipped out Javier Vazquez from their rotation, trading the durable right-hander (along with Boone Logan) to the Braves for Brent Lillibridge and a package of prospects.
The newly acquired Betemit will assume primary third base duties. Alexei Ramirez, who hit .290 with 21 homers in his rookie campaign, will slide over from second base to man shortstop. Chris Getz should get the starting second base job after he posting an .814 OPS as a 24-year-old in Triple A. Paul Konerko returns at first base, but the righty slugger has seen his OPS fall from .932 in 2006 to .841 in 2007 and, finally, to .782 in 2008.
The White Sox boast tremendous offense in the corner outfield spots with Carlos Quentin and Jermaine Dye. Quentin was a frontrunner for AL Most Valuable Player honors last season before breaking his wrist at the beginning of September. Dye continues to mash on the South Side; the right-handed slugger has posted an .868 OPS with 160 homers in his four seasons in Chicago. Quentin’s and Dye’s offense will be needed to cover for center fielder Brian Anderson and his .277 career on-base percentage.
A.J. Pierzynski and Thome return at catcher and designated hitter, respectively. Pierzynski has proven to be quite durable and consistent, playing in 130 or more games in all but one of the past seven seasons while posting average offensive marks for a catcher. Thome finally started to show his age, as the 37-year-old saw drops in both his on-base and slugging percentages in 2008. Even with those declines, the veteran thumper compiled an .865 OPS and provides a formidable left-handed stick in the middle of the Chicago lineup.
Manager Ozzie Guillen’s starting rotation is anchored by Mark Buehrle. The 29-year-old veteran allowed 240 hits in 218.2 innings last year, fanning better than 2.5 batters for every walk he allowed and keeping his ERA under 4.00. Danks emerged as the best pitcher on the team last season, allowing only 15 homers despite pitching in a hitter-friendly park. Gavin Floyd also had a breakout year with a 3.84 ERA, but that performance may be difficult to reprise unless the young righty improves his ability to keep the ball in the park–Floyd saw opposing hitters take him deep 30 times last year. Clayton Richard, a 25-year-old southpaw who filled in for Jose Contreras last season, becomes the fourth starter in the rotation with the departure of Vazquez and his 200 strikeouts. While the Sox rotation is strong on top, it is questionable on the back end with youngsters Aaron Poreda and Lance Broadway competing for the final spot.
The Sox’ bullpen will once again be anchored by portly closer Bobby Jenks, who saw his strikeout numbers plummet to 38 in 61.2 innings—a far cry from the strikeout-plus per inning the hard-throwing right-hander had previously shown over his career. Jenks will have veteran righty Octavio Dotel setting up in front of him, while Matt Thornton will keep his job as the primary left-hander out of Guillen’s bullpen.
The Twins finished last season as the third highest–scoring team in the American League which was the highest-octane offense in their division. They managed this despite a low team OPS of .748 (which was 10 points below the league average) because the Twins hit .305 with runners in scoring position. Scoring runs at that same rate will prove difficult in 2009 without more production from the spots in the lineup not occupied by their middle-of-the-order, one-two punch: left-handed hitters Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer.
The Twins’ outfield will consist of a combination of Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young in the corners, flanking center fielder Carlos Gomez. Cuddyer was hampered by injuries last year and in his place, Span emerged as a solid offensive performer with a .387 OBP. Span’s performance may be enough to limit the playing time of former uber-prospect Young, who didn’t see his power potential come to fruition with only 10 homers in 152 games last year.
Morneau will once again be joined in the infield by Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, and Brian Buscher. Punto rebounded nicely from a disastrous ’07 campaign and will be the team’s starting shortstop. Buscher and Casilla are similar offensive players to Punto in that they hit for average without a high on-base percentage and without much power.
Jason Kubel returns as the designated hitter and as the only option outside of Morneau likely to put the ball over the fence. The left-handed Kubel and Morneau were the only Minnesota hitters that topped the 20-homer mark last year as the team hit only 111 round-trippers.
Manager Ron Gardenhire leaned heavily on the club’s young starters last season after the departure of his ace Johan Santana. Minnesota needs to get a full season from 25-year-old lefty Francisco Liriano; if so, he should provide a dramatic upgrade over the 23 wretched tarts that Livan Hernandez made in 2008. Liriano will be joined by right-handers Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn, plus lefty Glenn Perkins, who collectively allowed the fewest walks in the league in 2008. Only Blackburn made more than 28 starts last year and none exceeded 200 innings in the majors.
Minnesota closer Joe Nathan is one of the best in the league, but the Twins struggled at times to get to the ninth inning with a lead. Submarining righty Pat Neshek was lost early on in the ’08 season. His return, and the addition of knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, should bolster the relief crew of righties while Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and Boof Bonser bridge the gap between the starters and Nathan.
No team was more depleted by injuries in 2008 than the Indians. Starting pitcher Jake Westbrook was lost for the year, Fausto Carmona missed two months, closer Joe Borowski hit the DL early on and never recovered, catcher Victor Martinez was limited to 76 games, and stalwart DH” Travis Hafner saw action in just 57 contests. The early-season injury problems led to the trades of Sabathia, Paul Byrd, and Casey Blake so that, by the end of the year, the Tribe bore little resemblance to the ’07 team that ended up one heartbreaking game away from the World Series. Still, the Indians outscored their opponents by 44 runs over the season and should have posted a record better than their .500 mark.
Heading into 2009, the Indians moved aggressively to shore up their bullpen by signing Kerry Wood to take over the closer’s job. They also re-signed Anthony Reyes to compete for a spot in the starting rotation. A three-team trade with the Mariners and Mets meant the departure of right fielder Franklin Guttierez and the arrival of bullpen arm Joe Smith.
Skipper Eric Wedge’s boys managed the sixth-best offense in the AL last year despite the injuries to Martinez and Hafner. That was due in large part to superstar center fielder Grady Sizemore, who put together perhaps the best season of his career by driving in 90 runs with 33 homers. Both totals led the team; more impressively, the young left-handed hitter achieved it primarily from the leadoff spot. Reserve backstop Kelly Shoppach filled in admirably for Martinez behind the plate and finished with a career-high 21 homers. Shortstop Jhonny Perralta improved with the glove and saw his slugging percentage reach .473. The Tribe will be looking for each of the aforementioned players to produce similarly in 2009 to help compensate for the decline of slugger Travis Hafner and for a big question mark at third base. With Blake gone, 25-year-old Andy Marte will have most likely get starting duties at the hot corner, but the former hot prospect has struggled mightily so far in his big-league career, managing only an incredibly weak .602 OPS in parts of four seasons.
Wedge’s pitching staff will be led by 2008 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. The brilliant left-hander with the surgical control will be followed in the rotation by sinkerballer Carmona, who posted a 5.44 ERA and who walked 12 more batters than he struck out. Veteran right-hander Anthony Reyes and young lefties Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey look to round out the starting five.
The Tribe’s bullpen should get a boost this season from the additions of Wood and Smith, but the club also needs Rafael Betancourt to pitch a lot better. Betancourt was dominant in 2007 but awful in 2008. Getting better bullpen support should help the Tribe move into the upper levels of the division.
The Royals rode a young and developing rotation to 75 wins and a fourth-place finish in 2008. Due to an offense that scored fewer runs than all but two other teams, the Royals finished the season scoring 90 runs less than they allowed. That differential was 46 runs worse than the Tigers, who finished in last place behind Kansas City.
The Royals made several additions heading into the 2009 campaign. Right-handed setup pitcher Kyle Farnsworth was added to pitch in front of closer Joakim Soria. They added Mike Jacobs (who hit 32 home runs and slugged .514 with the Marlins) to take over first base duties and traded for Coco Crisp to man center field instead of the speedy but offensively challenged Joey Gathwright.
In the infield, the Royals will look to Alex Gordon to lead the offense as the 25-year-old continues to mature. He’s joined on the left side by Mike Aviles, who put together a solid rookie season at age 27 and should return as the regular shortstop over Tony Pena, Jr. Switch-hitting Alberto Callapso hit .305 in limited duty last year and is expected to be the Royals’ primary second baseman. Light-hitting John Buck returns as the regular receiver.
The Royals’ outfield production should improve with the addition of Crisp. Former center fielder David DeJesus will get the bulk of the playing time in left field while manager Trey Hillman decides between the expensive and ineffective Jose Guillen and the younger Mark Teahen in right. Billy Butler, who disappointed and was demoted to Triple A for part of the season, should get the bulk of the at-bats at designated hitter. The right-handed hitter is only 23 and should improve if his career minor league numbers are any indication of his ability.
On the mound, KC is strong at the top of the rotation with righties Zach Greinke and Gil Meche both posting sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008. Righty Luke Hochevar, 25, should continue to improve after a rookie season that showed promise, and brainy finesse right-hander Brian Bannister, now 28, is a decent bet to improve upon his 5.76 ERA from last year.
In the bullpen, despite adding Farnsworth, KC is thinner due to the trades that brought in Jacobs from Florida and Crisp from Boston. Gone are Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez who combined for 120 relief innings and a 2.85 ERA. The Royals’ bullpen was one of the strengths of the ’08 team, but it has to be viewed as questionable now with the erratic Farnsworth pitching ahead of the very solid Soria.
In stark contrast to last year, when the Central Division had two obvious preseason favorites, it starts the 2009 season without an obvious standout team. The flip side is that the Central also appears to lack any truly bad teams. Instead there are at least four teams—and possibly five if Kansas City matures—that could stake their claim to the divisional title if they remain healthy overall and catch a few breaks.
In 2008, the American League Central had by far the smallest spread between the top and bottom teams, only 14.5 games. While that reflected the fact that the White Sox needed only 89 wins to cop the division title, it also reflects a level of parity within the division that could result in an old-fashioned barnburner of a pennant race in 2009. And, as the National Football League vividly demonstrates, fans love pennant races and parity, even if that is largely a function of mediocrity across the board.
The Indians seem to have a slight edge at the starting gate in that they begin the season as a decent team coming off of a strong finish to a season in which they received little good news outside of Cliff Lee’s emergence as an ace and rotation anchor. In a season that might see a team capture the Central Division crown with 90 wins or fewer, every team has a shot.
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March 23rd, 2009 at 5:22 pm
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